Thursday is shaping up to be the kind of raw, gray spring day that makes the weekend forecast feel that much more welcome. Temperatures across the region are sitting in the low-to-mid 40s this morning under mostly cloudy skies, and they won’t move much — expect highs only in the upper 40s to near 50° this afternoon. That’s a solid 10 to 15 degrees below where we should be for mid-May.
The culprit is a closed mid-level low drifting southeast across New York State today. The associated surface low, sitting just north of Lake Ontario this morning, will redevelop as a coastal wave downstream this afternoon — and that’s what drives the shower threat for our area. Coverage increases through the afternoon and into the evening, so if you’re heading out today, keep the rain jacket within reach. Amounts will be light, but showers could be persistent at times.
Tonight, the axis of heavier shower coverage shifts eastward toward the eastern Lake Ontario region as Atlantic moisture wraps around the back side of the system. Lows will settle into the low-to-mid 40s region-wide — chilly for May but nothing alarming. No frost concerns.
Stream flows are running high but not at flood stage — the Seneca River near Seneca Falls is moving at 1,690 cfs and the Keuka Lake Outlet at Dresden is at 543 cfs, worth noting for anyone with low-lying property near these waterways.
The good news: Friday brings a genuine turnaround. High pressure builds from the southwest, showers exit, and temperatures begin climbing. By the weekend, expect highs in the 70s, with summer-like readings — possibly near 90° — arriving early next week.
Weather Center forecast for the Finger Lakes region. Sourced from NWS, Open-Meteo, NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and USGS stream-flow data. Updated 6 AM, noon, and 6 PM ET.